Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Analysis of Q2 Results for Junior Oil and Gas Companies on the TSX Part Four - The Value of A BOED

In this post, I will look at the value of a Barrel of Oil Equivalent per Day (BOED) for 60 publicly listed oil and gas juniors with production between 500 and 10,000 BOED and production from the Western Canadian Basin. The definition that I will use for the value of a BOED is Market Capitalization divided by the BOED rate plus the Debt divided by the BOED rate. This will give the enterprise value price per BOED based on the share price as of the last day of Q2 2009 which is August 31 2009.

Overview:
  • 60 Junior Oil and Gas Companies with production between 500 and 10,000 BOED

  • Average market capitalization per BOED is $16,141

  • Average debt per BOED is -$9,549

  • Average enterprise value (market cap less debt) per BOED is $30,871

  • 8 of the 60 companies didn't have any debt


CompanyMarket Cap per BOEDDebt per BOEDEnterprise Value per BOED
Questerre$183,658 $63,217 $246,875
Insignia$10,259 $34,508 $44,768
West$9,596 $23,158 $32,755
Painted Pony$6,173 $16,976 $23,149
BlackPearl$30,763 $11,234 $41,997
DeeThree$2,401 $2,793 $5,194
Sure$20,185 $2,570 $22,754
Bellamont$41,061 $977 $42,038
Angle$2,190 $(1,235)$3,425
Intl Sovereign$6,411 $(2,795)$9,206
Terra$3,354 $(4,641)$7,994
Canext$26,527 $(6,515)$33,042
ProspEx$11,146 $(7,530)$18,677
Culane$11,875 $(7,703)$19,578
Triton$6,935 $(7,798)$14,733
Zargon$18,584 $(7,940)$26,523
NuLoch$51,004 $(8,615)$59,619
Anderson$10,680 $(8,970)$19,650
Storm$12,276 $(8,985)$21,261
Yoho$5,731 $(9,395)$15,126
Ironhorse$1,601 $(9,407)$11,008
Redcliffe$32,724 $(9,826)$42,550
One$14,468 $(10,204)$24,672
Wrangler West$1,430 $(10,235)$11,665
Breaker$3,401 $(10,441)$13,842
Rock$7,779 $(10,447)$18,226
Dejour$49,651 $(10,671)$60,323
Midnight$25,137 $(10,938)$36,075
Diaz$9,952 $(11,400)$21,352
TRUE$6,132 $(11,738)$17,870
Orleans$1,241 $(12,324)$13,565
Midway$2,052 $(12,581)$14,632
Cinch$16,800 $(12,730)$29,530
Canadian Phoenix$38,500 $(13,076)$51,576
Cequence$6,460 $(13,694)$20,154
Twin Butte$13,987 $(13,928)$27,915
Second Wave$7,508 $(14,395)$21,903
Petro-Reef$12,086 $(14,579)$26,665
Berens$17,456 $(14,585)$32,041
Monterey$9,465 $(14,664)$24,129
Crocotta$658 $(14,894)$15,552
Vero$275 $(15,057)$15,332
Twoco$8,843 $(15,234)$24,077
Delphi$1,858 $(15,289)$17,147
Stonefire$3,923 $(15,914)$19,837
Result$11,085 $(16,102)$27,187
Open Range$5,319 $(16,429)$21,747
Arsenal$16,301 $(16,594)$32,895
Great Plains$21,803 $(17,005)$38,808
Bonterra$19,240 $(17,303)$36,543
Seaview$28,476 $(17,477)$45,953
Fairwest$8,120 $(19,311)$27,431
Zapata$2,717 $(19,779)$22,496
Buffalo$14,500 $(20,057)$34,557
Freehold$41,048 $(20,811)$61,859
Fortress$9,262 $(21,777)$31,039
Arcan$9,687 $(25,716)$35,403
Argosy$1,629 $(27,538)$29,167
Action$8,836 $(33,700)$42,536
EagleRock$6,210 $(38,433)$44,642
Average$16,141 $(9,549)$30,871


As can be seen, due to the low valuations or market capitalization and the high debt loads that companies have taken on, the enterprise value per BOED for half of these companies is negative.

The average enterprise value per BOED, $30,871, highlights the fact that there is a problem with the Juniors. Right now, the average Find and Develop (F&D) cost to bring a Barrel of Oil Equivalent (BOE) on line is $16. If the average proved reserves is 8 years then the total cost to bring on a BOED is $16 X 365 days X 8 years = $46,720/BOED. It's less expensive for companies that are looking to acquire production to just buy up these Juniors since the difference between the enterprise value and the actual F&D costs are $12,793. Of the 60 companies listed, there are 55 that have enterprise values lower than $46,720. 92% of the juniors enterprise value is lower than the average F&D costs per BOED, which means that they are undervalued.

I assume that there are several reasons why a lot of these companies have not been acquired and the two that stick out are; lack of access to capital, high debt loads that the juniors are carrying. Acquiring companies probably do not want to take on the debt that the juniors have incurred. Also, as the old saying goes, give them enough rope and they will hang themselves. I think a lot of the juniors have a long enough rope, it is just a matter of time.

I still think that we will see some of these companies get themselves into problems financially since they are carrying a significant amount of debt compared to asset value and banks will start calling there financing. In fact it just happened to one of the juniors listed, Action Energy, where National Bank called the outstanding money owed to them, which was $31.6M. You can see the story here.

At the end of the day, large debt loads and low valuations combined with numerous other factors such as the current market conditions, the low prices of natural gas and such, will be crippling to some of these companies.

These opinions are mine and may not reflect your view. If you would like to contact me, then please feel free to do so at info@argentis-group.com. Argentis Group assists oil and gas companies with operational audits to identify areas to reduce costs, increase revenues and increase the overall asset value of an oil and gas company.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Followers